2024 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Something good for all in the long range forecast
by Steve Dettre/RSHYR media 17 Dec 2024 22:16 PST
26 December 2024
The panel of the Long Range Weather Forecast (left to right): Patrick Broughton, Juan Vila, Tom Barker, Steve Taylor, Ken Gourlay, Gabrielle Woodhouse and Sean Langman) - Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race © RSHYR | Ashley Dart
The long range forecast conditions are likely to feature north easterly winds for the start of the 2024 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race on Boxing Day.
Gabrielle Woodhouse, Senior Meteorologist for the NSW Bureau of Meteorology, said the forecast is currently a "little bit uncertain".
"We're talking more than seven days away and currently, we're expecting a cold front and low-pressure system to move across south eastern Australia early next week," Woodhouse said.
"Depending on how quickly this system moves, it will determine what we see at race start.
"Currently, the most likely scenario is that we'll see some north easterly winds at race start, which may pick up along the New South Wales coast on Thursday afternoon and evening."
However, the vagaries of the weather could mean a significantly different outcome.
"If this system stays a little bit slower and a little bit closer towards the New South Wales coast, then we may end up seeing a southerly wind instead at race start."
Navigators for a selection of boats in the race were optimistic about the conditions.
Vastly experienced Spanish sailor, Juan Vila, navigator on Master Lock Comanche, said in his mind the focus was on breaking the race record.
"In our mind is, whether the conditions will (lead) to possibly break a record," he said.
He said depending on the timing of the weather systems, "we feel that our boat is quite, quite strong".
"So we're quite excited about the forecast, (but) we're going to find out and through the race.
He said the balance on macro and micro scale systems can affect the final outcome.
"They can be very important for a strategy or tactics, navigating, and then there's a current as well, waves and so forth so.
"And you might get into Tasman Island in a very good position and then you have another race, into the finish.
"So, there's a lot of sections through the race and a lot of weather phenomena that can affect the strategies. It's a really exciting race. It's really complicated, but that's why it makes it very interesting for navigators."
Patrick Broughton on Love & War said for his boat, the current is much more important. "Because if you think about current, it's a much higher percentage of our average speed than it would be for something like Comanche," he said.
"So that current, well, picking that current is quite important. And just talking to (Woodhouse) about the temperatures around the place (shows) they are much higher than usual. Again, that will affect us, because of the small-scale weather."
Sean Langman of Kismet said his two-handed boat would be "the dark horse of the fleet" because of its very low rating.
"It's actually incredibly light displacement, incredibly brilliant design," he said.
He admitted the boat, the smallest in the fleet at 9.3 metres, was stacked with high tech gear.
"It looks like an aircraft down below... as far as software goes and hardware goes," he said, which could pose a challenge.
"Because neither of us are people who know how to adjust our mobile phone, so I don't know how that's going to go. We were watching some video over the weekend on how to navigate with modern equipment."
Veteran sailor Ken Gourlay, sailing with his son Tristan on Blue Moon, admitted the forecast "was an interesting one".
"It's undefined. As Gabrielle said, the pattern is variable. It's a long way out, but we don't see anything that's too nasty, particularly for shorthand sailing.
"We'll be conserving our energy because it's not a sprint, it's a three or four-day adventure. So, we'll sail with that little bit in reserve, as far as our sleep, which is a very important thing."
Hosted by the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia, the Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race starts at 1300hrs on Boxing Day on Sydney Harbour. The fleet currently stands at 106 (including 23 double handed entries), following the withdrawal of Millenium Falcon on Monday.