Sydney Hobart – Tasman Island in 20 hours
by John Curnow, Editor, Sail-World AUS 21 Dec 21:06 PST
Rounding Tasman Island and heading for the finish - Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race, December 2021 © Salty Dingo
Four days out from the big race is always a perilous time to be making weather predictions. The advanced computer models we have today do make it more approachable than ever, however.
So now there are some theories that Comanche could make the second turn or third start as it is affectionately known (aka Tasman Island) in 20 hours elapsed time (on record pace BTW). So that's the Daily Double into the mix, what then of the famed Trifecta? Have to shake off the Mini maxis and Caro for that. Devo – crack that whip! That’s not bad when currently the forecast would have the first start being commenced in five knots or less from anywhere from the Nor’west to just North of due East. The key is in the building Northerly that kicks in on the afternoon (AEDT) of December 26, and then builds and builds (and builds).
For others, the story could well be different, with a significant Westerly to ‘attack’ them as they are near or have just passed good old Gabo Island (aka GABO or Got A Bit On). Here the water coming down from the North in the East Australia Current smacks into the Westerly fetch of the upper reaches of the Southern Ocean that did not manage to tuck in under Tasmania and got squeezed into the very shallow Bass Strait and out the other side into the Tasman Sea.
If that new squirt has any Southerly in it then it can be three different directions for tide, wave, and wind, and well it is a bit of washing machine, now isn’t it… Yummy!
Smaller craft have reported having say 20% of their time in say 20 knots, and then it is all uprange from there.
There are a few things in all of this. Masterful drivers will earn their keep, no matter whether they command the good ship Enterprise, or the wee Kismet. Good thing there is plenty of talent on all those sorts of boats.
Those with a symmetrical bag will have the brace in charge of the kite pole trimmed even more than the sheet. VMG running is the name of the game. Yes, you will probably be grading a lot of ocean, but working out the angles won’t require a protractor (weird little plastic gizmo with a bunch of lines and numbers on it BTW, but don’t worry about that right now).
Could be wet, both from above and the bow.
May bring into play the other component of The Traditional Hobart. Namely, the not-so-glamorous Sydney to Eden race. Sometimes more do this one than the main game, BTW.
As I sit here in Northern NSW, at the time of writing it is 30 degrees C, with a Nor’easter making 26 knots in the puffs, and we have not had that much breeze for a week so far, in total. Furthermore, Perth is 41 degrees, and Melbourne 22, with bushfires already ablaze in both States, and alert for the holiday period already in place.
There is a lot of Jetstream activity, a High that will soon span the continent, and then come this Friday at about lunchtime, the expectation is that a Low with a centre of just 952 Hectopascals will have taken up position not that far below Maatsuyker Island. Now it is this Low that will have squashed up the isobars against the aforementioned High, and gradient always means squirt, even more so at the corners.
Five days out it’s to be taken with the proverbial soupçon of salt.
After the use of even potentially a Drifter at the start, the numbers on the sails will just go up. The J5 could get a look in for a lot of people. If this comes to pass and you’re at home, please do not tap your Communicator in the form of your Star Fleet badge on your left breast looking to talk with Scotty. He’ll be plenty busy beaming up many a soul from vessels far and wide. Energise!
As we get closer to kick-off we’ll deep dive a bit with what will no doubt be even more clarity, as the coast of Tassie will play a big hand in everyone’s outcome here.
Merry Christmas to all, and a big shout out to our expanded team at this time of year, which includes Crosbie and Dale Lorimer, along with Wendi and Jake, Tony and Clayton, as well as our own Richard Gladwell and Mark Jardine.
Please enjoy your yachting, stay safe, and thanks for tuning into Sail-World.com