2024 Sydney Hobart – In the zone
by John Curnow, Editor, Sail-World AUS 23 Dec 20:07 PST
26 December, 2024
Start of the 2022 Sydney Hobart race - Law Connect and Hamilton Island Wild Oats © Bow Caddy Media
You just have to love Christmas Eve. It is the time when he models all begin to align, or if not, the companionway hatch most certainly does. As this gets written, the supermaxis no longer look to be in the zone of getting to Hobart in record time. The vagaries of timing as to when things occur, and the removal of the drag race component delivered by the blistering Northerlies for an extended period during the early stages of the race have put paid to that.
Anyone from those boats will tell you that the record would be nice, but it is not the motivating factor. In order to finish first, first you have finish. So, they are a little outside it for now, for sure, in the zone for margin of error, but the reality is more like goodbye. Some correct calls by the attentive Navigator, masterful driving, attentive trimming, and an extremely amenable Huey could well see it come to pass, but for now it might be better to say, ‘just leave it be’. One Skipper was heard to be saying that the first half will be all about looking after the boat, and the second will come down to good luck and skilful management.
Now in the paragraph above, there is a note about masterful driving. At the speeds these weapons do, you will very much have to be in the zone, for the sea sate will demand it. It will do at least a 90-degree corner, and possibly more like 120, so just ready sloppy plus. Ugly and uncomfortable. There is a huge difference between full Main and the A4, as opposed to two slabs and the A6, yet the pressure might be identical. The latter gives you the ability to send the boat down the mine. Important feature when out at sea…
By the time things go round to the Sou’west early on Friday, maybe even late on Thursday night, the thinking is that it will be 30 knots with a 3m sea. N.B. This is earlier than expected before and the Low, remembering that in the Southern Hemisphere they spin clockwise, has a very nasty pointy spike in the isobars as it whistles through Bass Strait, only moments before it will slam into the leaders. Those sorts of conditions usually mean you are very happy to see the next one on come and stand behind you at 45 minutes elapsed whilst they get their eye in. Trick is not to relax too much at that point knowing you’re almost done. Even more so in the dark.
What are we looking at then? Well, the Northerly from the Heads will be of shorter duration. Boats will head offshore early to maximise the East Australia Current. Maybe 30 or 50nm out to sea, but you will need to be back in for the change, and sleds do not like dead downhill, so that means angles.
The super-quick will probably get the better of the jump, and by the time others arrive Victoria will have different conditions entirely to Tasmania, and that could mean the famous Sydney to Eden race will be very popular. At that stage Gabo Island could be more like got more than just a bit on. This area will be the determining factor for large displacement style boats, or smaller planing craft.
Now it won’t be all to the supermaxis favour, for the lee delivered by the huge Low, now at more like 972 hectopascals in its centre, could stretch out by as much as 60nm at the bottom of Tassie at say the Maria Island area. How to come back in. Indeed.
One of the rules of The Traditional Hobart was you go out early and come in late. That is not the clubbers guide to Tasmania, it is just a reference to where you are relative to the rhumbline between South Head and Tasman Island.
Thing is, you cannot travel in no breeze, and my how much do the big girls like the puff? This one spot could be the maker, not only of Line Honours, but overall. Presently, a 52-footer might be just on two days elapsed, a 40-footer more like three days, and a swift 30-something in the order of three and a half, but the Low will be one that sets the tone.
At least for now there is not a lot of rain to be had by most of the fleet, and that remains another one to place in the ‘we’ll see what comes to pass’ bin at the end of pier before you step on board.
The 2024 Sydney to Hobart will be a tale of two cities. Above 38 degrees South, and below it. Above it is stiff breeze, potentially nasty seas and maybe a spot of rain. Below it, it is vagaries and a speed hump about the size of the Blue Mountains. Once upon a time Stan Honey took Comanche halfway to New Zealand before turning back in. Could history repeat itself? Will the Volvo 70 Celestial have cards to play here?
Utterly fascinating.
Please enjoy your yachting, stay safe, and thanks for tuning into Sail-World.com