World Meteorological Day Q&A with PredictWind's Arnaud Monges
by PredictWind 18 Mar 22:19 PDT
Arnaud Monges the Meteorologist © Predictwind.com
One fascinating journey from a windsurfer originally, onto the America's Cup and then PredictWind. This Q&A with Arnaud Monges celebrates all that we appreciate from the work that meteorologists do to help us enjoy our time on the water more than ever.
You've had a fascinating journey into meteorology, from windsurfing and the Amazon, to the America's Cup, and now, PredictWind. Can you share a little more about your story and what ignited your passion for weather, particularly in the marine environment?
It all started 30 years ago when I learned windsurfing in the South of France. Back then, with no internet, getting any wind forecast or live observations was challenging. I remember having to call a hotline phone number to get a recorded message of the wind speed by your local spot. Back then, you had to rely on your senses to forecast the wind, know if it was worthwhile to drive to the spot, and what sail size to gear. Nowadays, PredictWind has made it so much easier to practice those water sports and maximise your time on the water.
Later, during my scientific studies in math and physics, I became fascinated by the power of weather, particularly through a project on hurricanes as part of my curriculum. I learned about tropical climates and the immense energy nature can capture with the heat and also its release in extreme events. And then, as part of my master's degree in Atmospheric Sciences in the USA, I had the chance to join a measurement campaign in the Amazon to track deforestation and its impact on the climate. As I launched weather balloons and climbed scientific observation towers above the forest canopy, I realised the importance of weather and climate.
What does the day-to-day role as a meteorologist for PredictWind look like?
My typical day involves analysing various weather models and data to provide accurate forecasts. During the America’s Cup in Barcelona, PredictWind was the official weather supplier, and we were responsible for preparing a weather forecast each race day.
With the last weather model updates (0UTC runs), you start your weather analysis early. I first look at a synoptic view of the weather over a large area covering western Europe, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Mediterranean Sea. Pressure maps at sea level and geopotential height at 500 millibars (roughly the middle of the atmosphere) give you an understanding of global weather and it is like the big picture of the day. You then go smaller in scale and focus your attention on high-resolution models that give you the best forecast of the local winds in the north bay Barcelona where the racing happened.
You also compare the forecasts with live wind observations on the ground and buoys at sea, including the six weather stations installed by PredictWind in key locations for this event. Wave forecasting is also crucial and needs to be analysed as those impact many high-performance foiling boats. One of the challenges was not being physically present in Barcelona. But with webcams, satellite images, and other resources, you can really get a feel for the weather, almost as if you were on a weather boat bouncing around the America’s Cup race course.
Weather forecasting has changed a lot with new technology. Could you describe some of the key tools you use to provide accurate marine forecasts?
We use high-resolution models like PredictWind's PWG and PWE, which offer 1-kilometer resolution for localised forecasts. We also analyse live observations from weather stations and buoys, and use tools like webcams and satellite imagery to get a comprehensive view of conditions. During the America's cup, comparing models to observations was a large part of the process.
Weather at sea presents unique challenges compared to land-based forecasts. What’s the difference between general and marine weather forecasts?
General weather forecasts often focus on land conditions and can be misleading for sailors. If you look at the general weather on TV for example and use it to plan your sailing of the day, you may get quite disappointed. The general weather is focused on land where people are and you will find quite different weather conditions as soon as you get one nautical mile off the coast.
Marine forecasts require a deeper understanding of wind and wave dynamics. Coastal areas and open water are influenced by unique factors like sea breezes, currents, and tides, which require specialised modeling. PredictWind's high-resolution models are designed specifically for coastal sailing, providing more accurate forecasts than the global models used by general weather companies.
With the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, how can sailors leverage marine weather forecasts to better prepare for and navigate these conditions?
One key new tool is PredictWind's Extreme Weather Warnings, which help sailors anticipate and avoid hazardous conditions that standard forecasts might overlook. These warnings focus on key indicators like lightning activity, the CAPE Index (measuring atmospheric instability), rain squalls, extreme gusts, and wind opposing current - factors that can signal sudden or severe weather shifts even when broader forecasts appear calm. The warnings are integrated into various PredictWind tools, such as the Daily Briefing, Forecast Tables, and Weather Routing. Clicking on the warning symbol highlights affected areas and provides descriptions of the threat. By consolidating critical data into intuitive alerts, it helps sailors make informed decisions to navigate safely, even in unpredictable conditions. More info can be found here.
What advice would you give to ocean goers who are looking to improve their understanding of marine weather and make better decisions on the water?
Utilise specialised marine forecasting tools like PredictWind that are designed specifically for ocean goers. Learn to interpret key weather indicators and understand how they affect your specific location. Pay attention to localised conditions and use high-resolution models for accurate predictions. Most importantly, stay updated on extreme weather warnings and leverage the latest technology to enhance your situational awareness.
With PredictWind's new overlays, like lightning and AIS, becoming available, what would your ideal screen setup look like when planning a voyage or monitoring conditions at sea? How do you see these features enhancing situational awareness and safety?
My ideal screen would have a split view so you can display different weather information on the left and right sides for the same area and time (maps are coupled in space & time). As an example on the left side, I'd have the high-resolution wind forecasts (PWG 1km), and on the right side, so I can see how strong thunderstorms can affect the local wind..
See the example for Auckland:
With so many sources of weather information available, what are the most important factors sailors should consider when choosing a reliable forecasting service?
Sailors should prioritise services that provide high-resolution localised forecasts, access to real-time data and alerts, and user-friendly tools. Look for services with a proven track record of accuracy and reliability, especially in extreme weather conditions.
PredictWind's accurate forecasts and alerts have been crucial in keeping sailors safe at sea. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, a family found themselves stuck in Fiji as reports of a potential hurricane emerged. Conflicting forecasts created uncertainty - some sources downplayed the storm, while PredictWind’s data clearly warned of the approaching danger.
Trusting the forecast, the family took action. Unable to secure a berth in the local hurricane hole, they followed local advice and moored their boat deep in the mangroves, securing it as best they could. When the storm hit, they rode it out safely with minimal damage. Unfortunately, others who dismissed the warning and chose not to prepare suffered significant losses, highlighting the importance of reliable weather information and how trustworthy data isn’t just useful - it can mean the difference between safety and disaster.
This year's World Meteorological Day theme focuses on 'Closing the Early Warning Gap Together.' What do you see as the biggest obstacles to ensuring all sailors, especially those in remote locations, have access to reliable and timely forecasts?
The biggest obstacles include limited internet connectivity in remote areas, the cost of advanced forecasting tools, and the complexity of interpreting weather data. PredictWind addresses these challenges by offering a free package with essential features, offline functionality, and user-friendly tools. For free, the platform provides a Daily Briefing that summarises key weather information, along with detailed Forecast Tables and Graphs for in-depth analysis. Interactive Maps display essential data layers, including wind, wave, rain, cloud cover, isobars, and air temperature, offering a comprehensive view of conditions.
We also focus on education to help users understand complex weather data. Also, you do not need any specific device. With any affordable smartphone or computer and an internet connection, you can access our forecasts.