Melbourne Osaka Race Update - The Gamble
by Melbourne to Osaka Media 2 Apr 20:05 PDT
Grant (left) and Peter on Joker X2 set the pace - Melbourne Osaka Race © Al Dillon
Morning Clouds from Fika - Melbourne Osaka Cup ©Annette Hesselman
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The Solomon Islands serve as a gatekeeper for the fleet, posing challenges for the most seasoned sailors. Here, routing software becomes less reliable, with forecasts often failing to materialise.
Sailors must shift from data-driven navigation to pure instinct: reading the clouds, looking for currents, and finding their way through the unpredictable, flukey breezes and being prepared for conditions that can change in an instant.
It was an educated gamble for co-skippers Peter Dowdney and Grant Chipperfield on
Joker X2, the J133 yacht. They threw the dice and chose a more easterly route through Manning Strait.
"We were hoping for more wind than was forecast in the main strait," explained Dowdney, as they took advantage of the unique conditions in Manning Strait, where the current flows south to north.
"There wasn't as much wind in the passage as forecast," he added. "But we've just made it into open ocean on the northern side of the Solomon Islands and are headed for Osaka!"
"Currently, we're doing 7-8 knots SOG with a Code 0 up, loving the freedom to point the boat at the best possible angle," Dowdney continued. "I see that our fleet-start mates are having a hard time breaking out of the main channel. Not sure how long that will last, but we'll take this little win that we seem to have earned."
Having popped out roughly 135 nautical miles south of the main fleet, Joker X2 is now enjoying fresh winds once again. Will this give Joker X2 the edge on the fleet? Only time will tell.
One meteorological factor that remains fairly reliable, however, is the arrival of thunderstorms when CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) levels are high—currently at 1,800. In these conditions, towering cloud columns build during the sweltering heat of the day, only to collapse after nightfall, unleashing torrential rain, sudden gusts, and an electrifying spectacle of sound and light.
Peter Tardrew aboard Quest reports a day of extremes—shifting from dead calm to 9.5 knots, followed by intense electrical storms overnight.
It's a constant balancing act, adjusting between light air and heavier sails, ensuring the delicate light air sails aren't shredded in an instant, and holding onto hard-fought gains.
Meanwhile, further down the Australian Coast:
The Secretary is fixed and back in the race. It's a reminder of the immense time and effort that goes into competing. While Paul and Dave will take a penalty for their diversion and repairs, they remain firm in their belief that "Sometimes it's the journey and not the chocolates that count," and just getting to the finish is winning.
Roaring Forty is back on course after completing repairs and waiting out the East Coast Low.
And then there's Alive, the Reichel Pugh 66, who started four days ago, four weeks after the first starter and two weeks after the main fleet, is finally stretching its legs. Initially rigged for heavy weather, the crew sailed conservatively to clear the edge of the East Coast Low and what would have been an uncomfortable sea state.
At last, "it's Alive" and finding its groove, gliding north riding the northerly currents and deep running on the back of the low, closing in on the fleet, and steadily eating up the miles to Osaka.
Alive is coming—starting to bite into the distance between them and the leaders, remembering that to win, you need to finish with the lowest elapsed time.